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008 141117s2015 enka sb 001|0|eng|d
020 9781118921104|q(e-book)
020 9781118921081|q(hbk.) :
020 |z9781118921098|q(ePub ebook) :
020 |z9781118921104|q(PDF ebook)
040 StDuBDS|beng|cStDuBDS|dUk|dStDuBDSZ|dUkPrAHLS
082 04 658.150112|223
100 1 Samonas, Michael.
245 10 Financial forecasting, analysis, and modelling :|ba
framework for long-term forecasting /|cMichael Samonas.
260 Chichester :|bWiley,|c2015.
300 xv, 215 pages :|billustrations
490 1 Wiley finance series
500 Formerly CIP.|5Uk
505 0 Preface xi Acknowledgments xiii About the Author xv Part
one Developing Corporate Finance Models 1 Chapter 1
Introduction 3 1.1 What is Financial Modelling? 3 1.2
Defining the Inputs and the Outputs of a Simple Financial
Model 6 1.3 The Financial Modelling Process of More
Complex Models 9 1.3.1 Step 1: Defining the Problem the
Model Will Solve: The Fundamental Business Question 9
1.3.2 Step 2: Specification of the Model 10 1.3.3 Step 3:
Designing and Building the Model 11 1.3.4 Step 4: Checking
the Model s Output 13 1.4 Excel as a Tool of Modelling:
Capabilities and Limitations 13 Chapter 2 A Short Primer
in the Accounting of Financial Statements 17 2.1 The
Accounting Equation 17 2.2 The Balance Sheet 20 2.3 The
Income Statement 23 2.3.1 Cash Accounting Versus Accrual
Accounting 26 2.4 The Cash Flow Statement 26 2.4.1
Operating Activities 27 2.4.2 Investing Activities 27
2.4.3 Financing Activities 27 2.4.4 Income Flows and Cash
Flows 27 2.4.5 Preparing the Statement of Cash Flows 28
2.5 The Articulation of Income Statement, Balance Sheet,
and Cash Flow Statements 29 2.6 Financial Statement
Analysis: Ratio Analysis 32 2.6.1 Profitability Ratios 35
2.6.2 Liquidity Ratios 37 2.6.3 Solvency Ratios 38 2.6.4
Other Ratios 39 2.6.5 The Limitations of Financial Ratios
40 Chapter 3 Financial Statement Modelling 43 3.1
Introduction How Financial Models Work 43 3.2 Collecting
and Analyzing Historical Data 47 3.3 Selecting the Key
Forecast Drivers 53 3.4 Modelling the Income Statement 59
3.5 Modelling the Balance Sheet 63 3.6 Modelling Interest
and Circular References 66 3.7 Modelling the Cash Flow
Statement 69 Chapter 4 Forecasting Performance 75 4.1
Introduction: Designing a Dashboard-like Control Panel 75
4.2 Basic Statistical Methods Used for Forecasting 88 4.3
Forecasting Sales 93 4.3.1 Bottom-up Versus Top-down
Forecasting 97 4.3.2 Forecasting Sales of Existing
Products or Services 97 4.4 Forecasting Costs 99 4.5
Forecasting CAPEX and Depreciation 103 4.5.1 Forecasting
CAPEX and Depreciation for Existing Companies 108 4.6
Forecasting Working Capital and Funding Needs 110 4.6.1
Forecasting Funding Needs 113 Chapter 5 Business Valuation
115 5.1 Valuation Approaches 115 5.2 Steps for Applying
the DCF Method 120 5.3 Rewriting Financial Statements
Calculation of Free Cash Flows 121 5.4 Calculating the
Weighted Average Cost of Capital 124 5.4.1 Calculating the
Weighted Average Cost of Capital of SteelCo 128 5.5
Estimating the Terminal Value 131 5.6 DCF Summary
Enterprise Value Adjustments 132 Part two Planning for
Uncertainty 137 Chapter 6 Using Sensitivity Analysis 139
6.1 Introduction 139 6.2 One-Dimensional and 2-Dimensional
Sensitivity Analysis 140 6.3 Choosing the Variables to
Change 145 6.4 Modelling Example 149 6.4.1 Selecting the
Variables to Change 149 6.4.2 Assigning a Range of Values
149 6.4.3 Constructing the 2-dimensional Sensitivity
Analysis Table 151 6.4.4 Interpreting the Results 153
Chapter 7 Using Scenarios 157 7.1 Introduction 157 7.2
Using Scenario Analysis with Excel s Scenario Manager 158
7.2.1 Adding 2 More Scenarios 159 7.3 Alternative Ways to
Create Scenarios in Excel 163 7.4 Applying Scenarios to
SteelCo s Case 167 7.4.1 Deciding on the Number of
Scenarios and Input Variables under each Scenario 167
7.4.2 Deciding on the Output Variables 168 7.4.3 Assigning
Values to the Input Variables under Each Scenario 170
7.4.4 Building the Scenarios in Excel s Scenario Manager
173 7.4.5 Interpreting the Results 176 Chapter 8 Using
Monte Carlo Simulation 179 8.1 Introduction 179 8.2
Building Uncertainty Directly Into the Modelling Process
180 8.3 Probabilities, Cumulative Probabilities, and
Frequency Distribution Charts 182 8.4 Modelling Example
187 8.4.1 Identifying the Key Risk Variables 188 8.4.2
Choosing a Probability Distribution for Each Input
Variable 188 8.4.3 Performing the Simulation Runs 190
8.4.3.1 The Simple VBA CODE 192 8.4.4 Creating a Histogram
(Frequency Distribution Chart) in Excel 195 8.4.5
Interpreting the Results 200 8.4.6 Some Issues of Concern
201 Appendix 203 1. Walking through the Excel Model
Provided with the Book (SteelCo SA 4yr Business Plan) 203
Introduction 203 Structure of the Model 204 2. Other Excel
Files Provided with the Book 205 Index 207
506 1 200 annual accesses.|5UkHlHU
520 8 Risk analysis has become critical to modern financial
planning. This book provides a complete framework of long-
term financial forecasts in a practical and accessible way,
helping finance professionals include uncertainty in their
planning and budgeting process.|bRisk analysis has become
critical to modern financial planning Financial
Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides a complete
framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practical
and accessible way, helping finance professionals include
uncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With
thorough coverage of financial statement simulation models
and clear, concise implementation instruction, this book
guides readers step-by-step through the entire projection
plan development process. Readers learn the tools,
techniques, and special considerations that increase
accuracy and smooth the workflow, and develop a more
robust analysis process that improves financial strategy.
The companion website provides a complete operational
model that can be customised to develop financial
projections or a range of other key financial measures,
giving readers an immediately-applicable tool to
facilitate effective decision-making. In the aftermath of
the recent financial crisis, the need for experienced
financial modelling professionals has steadily increased
as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatility and
uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level of
understanding needed to develop stronger financial
planning, with techniques tailored to real-life
situations. Develop long-term projection plans using Excel
Use appropriate models to develop a more proactive
strategy Apply risk and uncertainty projections more
accurately Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity
Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and more Risk plays a
larger role in financial planning than ever before, and
possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are
made. Uncertainty has become a critical component in
financial planning, and accuracy demands it be used
appropriately. With special focus on uncertainty in
modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting, Analysis
and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to the mechanics of
modern finance.
650 0 Corporations|xFinance|xMathematical models.
650 0 Corporations|xFinance|xForecasting.
830 0 Wiley finance series.
856 40 |uhttps://www.vlebooks.com/vleweb/product/
openreader?id=Hull&isbn=9781118921104|zGo to eBook
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