LEADER 00000nam 2200445 a 4500
001 AH28826670
003 StDuBDS
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007 cr||||||||||||
008 150706s2015 enka fsb 001|0|eng|d
020 9781119057802|q(e-book)
020 9781119057796|q(hbk.) :
020 |z9781119057826|q(ePub ebook) :
020 |z9781119057802|q(PDF ebook)
040 StDuBDS|beng|cStDuBDS|dStDuBDSZ|dUkPrAHLS
050 0 HD61|b.A938 2015
100 1 Aven, Terje.
245 10 Risk analysis /|cTerje Aven.
250 Second edition.
260 Chichester, West Sussex :|bWiley,|c2015.
300 xi, 197 pages :|billustrations (black and white)
500 Previous edition: 2008.
505 0 Preface ix 1 What is a risk analysis? 1 1.1 Why risk
analysis? 3 1.2 Risk management 4 1.2.1 Decision-making
under uncertainty 6 1.3 Examples: decision situations 11
1.3.1 Risk analysis for a tunnel 11 1.3.2 Risk analysis
for an offshore installation 11 1.3.3 Risk analysis
related to a cash depot 12 2 What is risk? 13 2.1 The risk
concept and its description 13 2.2 Vulnerability 19 2.3
How to describe risk quantitatively 19 2.3.1 Description
of risk in a financial context 21 2.3.2 Description of
risk in a safety context 22 2.4 Qualitative judgements 24
3 The risk analysis process: planning 28 3.1 Problem
definition 28 3.2 Selection of analysis method 33 3.2.1
Checklist-based approach 35 3.2.2 Risk-based approach 36 4
The risk analysis process: risk assessment 38 4.1
Identification of initiating events 38 4.2 Cause analysis
39 4.3 Consequence analysis 40 4.4 Probabilities and
uncertainties 42 4.5 Risk picture: risk presentation 43
4.5.1 Handling the background knowledge 46 4.5.2 Risk
evaluation 47 5 The risk analysis process: risk treatment
49 5.1 Comparisons of alternatives 49 5.1.1 How to assess
measures? 51 5.2 Management review and judgement 53 6 Risk
analysis methods 55 6.1 Coarse risk analysis 55 6.2 Job
safety analysis 60 6.3 Failure modes and effects analysis
62 6.3.1 Strengths and weaknesses of an FMEA 68 6.4 Hazard
and operability studies 69 6.5 SWIFT 70 6.6 Fault tree
analysis 70 6.6.1 Qualitative analysis 73 6.6.2
Quantitative analysis 75 6.7 Event tree analysis 77 6.7.1
Barrier block diagrams 79 6.8 Bayesian networks 79 6.9
Monte Carlo simulation 82 7 Safety measures for a road
tunnel 84 7.1 Planning 84 7.1.1 Problem definition 84
7.1.2 Selection of analysis method 85 7.2 Risk assessment
86 7.2.1 Identification of initiating events 86 7.2.2
Cause analysis 88 7.2.3 Consequence analysis 88 7.2.4 Risk
picture 91 7.3 Risk treatment 93 7.3.1 Comparison of
alternatives 93 7.3.2 Management review and decision 93 8
Risk analysis process for an offshore installation 95 8.1
Planning 95 8.1.1 Problem definition 95 8.1.2 Selection of
analysis method 96 8.2 Risk analysis 96 8.2.1 Hazard
identification 96 8.2.2 Cause analysis 96 8.2.3
Consequence analysis 99 8.3 Risk picture and comparison of
alternatives 101 8.4 Management review and judgement 102 9
Production assurance 103 9.1 Planning 103 9.2 Risk
analysis 103 9.2.1 Identification of failures 103 9.2.2
Cause analysis 104 9.2.3 Consequence analysis 104 9.3 Risk
picture and comparison of alternatives 106 9.4 Management
review and judgement. Decision 107 10 Risk analysis
process for a cash depot 108 10.1 Planning 108 10.1.1
Problem definition 108 10.1.2 Selection of analysis method
109 10.2 Risk analysis 110 10.2.1 Identification of
hazards and threats 110 10.2.2 Cause analysis 110 10.2.3
Consequence analysis 113 10.3 Risk picture 115 10.4 Risk-
reducing measures 117 10.4.1 Relocation of the NOKAS
facility 118 10.4.2 Erection of a wall 118 10.5 Management
review and judgement. Decision 119 10.6 Discussion 119 11
Risk analysis process for municipalities 121 11.1 Planning
121 11.1.1 Problem definition 121 11.1.2 Selection of
analysis method 122 11.2 Risk assessment 122 11.2.1 Hazard
and threat identification 122 11.2.2 Cause and consequence
analysis. Risk picture 125 11.3 Risk treatment 126 12 Risk
analysis process for the entire enterprise 128 12.1
Planning 128 12.1.1 Problem definition 128 12.1.2
Selection of analysis method 129 12.2 Risk analysis 129
12.2.1 Price risk 129 12.2.2 Operational risk 132 12.2.3
Health, environment and safety (HES) 134 12.2.4 Reputation
risk 135 12.3 Overall risk picture 137 12.4 Risk treatment
138 13 Discussion 139 13.1 Risk analysis as a decision
support tool 139 13.2 Risk is more than the calculated
probabilities and expected values 140 13.3 Risk analysis
has both strengths and weaknesses 141 13.3.1 Precision of
a risk analysis: uncertainty and sensitivity analysis 141
13.3.2 Terminology 143 13.3.3 Risk acceptance criteria
(tolerability limits) 145 13.4 Reflection on approaches,
methods and results 148 13.5 Limitations of the causal
chain approach 148 13.6 Risk perspectives 150 13.7
Scientific basis 153 13.8 The implications of the
limitations of risk assessment 155 13.9 Critical systems
and activities 157 13.10 On the difference between risk as
seen from the perspectives of the analysts and management
162 13.11 Conclusions 165 A Probability calculus and
statistics 167 A.1 The meaning of a probability 167 A.2
Probability calculus 168 A.3 Probability distributions:
expected value 170 A.3.1 Binomial distribution 171 A.4
Statistics (Bayesian statistics) 172 B Introduction to
reliability analysis 174 B.1 Reliability of systems
composed of components 174 B.2 Production system 176 B.3
Safety system 176 C Approach for selecting risk analysis
methods 178 C.1 Expected consequences 178 C.2 Uncertainty
factors 179 C.3 Frame conditions 182 C.4 Selection of a
specific method 182 D Terminology 184 D.1 Risk management:
Relationships between key terms 186 Bibliography 188 Index
195
506 1 200 annual accesses.|5UkHlHU
650 0 Risk assessment|xMathematical models.
650 0 Risk|xMathematical models.
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