LEADER 00000nam  2200445 a 4500 
001    AH28826670 
003    StDuBDS 
005    20160929200244.0 
007    cr|||||||||||| 
008    150706s2015    enka   fsb    001|0|eng|d 
020    9781119057802 (e-book) 
020    9781119057796 (hbk.) : 
020    |z9781119057826 (ePub ebook)  : 
020    |z9781119057802 (PDF ebook) 
040    StDuBDS|beng|cStDuBDS|dStDuBDSZ|dUkPrAHLS 
050  0 HD61|b.A938 2015 
100 1  Aven, Terje. 
245 10 Risk analysis /|cTerje Aven. 
250    Second edition. 
260    Chichester, West Sussex :|bWiley,|c2015. 
300    xi, 197 pages :|billustrations (black and white) 
500    Previous edition: 2008. 
505 0  Preface ix 1 What is a risk analysis? 1 1.1 Why risk 
       analysis? 3 1.2 Risk management 4 1.2.1 Decision-making 
       under uncertainty 6 1.3 Examples: decision situations 11 
       1.3.1 Risk analysis for a tunnel 11 1.3.2 Risk analysis 
       for an offshore installation 11 1.3.3 Risk analysis 
       related to a cash depot 12 2 What is risk? 13 2.1 The risk
       concept and its description 13 2.2 Vulnerability 19 2.3 
       How to describe risk quantitatively 19 2.3.1 Description 
       of risk in a financial context 21 2.3.2 Description of 
       risk in a safety context 22 2.4 Qualitative judgements 24 
       3 The risk analysis process: planning 28 3.1 Problem 
       definition 28 3.2 Selection of analysis method 33 3.2.1 
       Checklist-based approach 35 3.2.2 Risk-based approach 36 4
       The risk analysis process: risk assessment 38 4.1 
       Identification of initiating events 38 4.2 Cause analysis 
       39 4.3 Consequence analysis 40 4.4 Probabilities and 
       uncertainties 42 4.5 Risk picture: risk presentation 43 
       4.5.1 Handling the background knowledge 46 4.5.2 Risk 
       evaluation 47 5 The risk analysis process: risk treatment 
       49 5.1 Comparisons of alternatives 49 5.1.1 How to assess 
       measures? 51 5.2 Management review and judgement 53 6 Risk
       analysis methods 55 6.1 Coarse risk analysis 55 6.2 Job 
       safety analysis 60 6.3 Failure modes and effects analysis 
       62 6.3.1 Strengths and weaknesses of an FMEA 68 6.4 Hazard
       and operability studies 69 6.5 SWIFT 70 6.6 Fault tree 
       analysis 70 6.6.1 Qualitative analysis 73 6.6.2 
       Quantitative analysis 75 6.7 Event tree analysis 77 6.7.1 
       Barrier block diagrams 79 6.8 Bayesian networks 79 6.9 
       Monte Carlo simulation 82 7 Safety measures for a road 
       tunnel 84 7.1 Planning 84 7.1.1 Problem definition 84 
       7.1.2 Selection of analysis method 85 7.2 Risk assessment 
       86 7.2.1 Identification of initiating events 86 7.2.2 
       Cause analysis 88 7.2.3 Consequence analysis 88 7.2.4 Risk
       picture 91 7.3 Risk treatment 93 7.3.1 Comparison of 
       alternatives 93 7.3.2 Management review and decision 93 8 
       Risk analysis process for an offshore installation 95 8.1 
       Planning 95 8.1.1 Problem definition 95 8.1.2 Selection of
       analysis method 96 8.2 Risk analysis 96 8.2.1 Hazard 
       identification 96 8.2.2 Cause analysis 96 8.2.3 
       Consequence analysis 99 8.3 Risk picture and comparison of
       alternatives 101 8.4 Management review and judgement 102 9
       Production assurance 103 9.1 Planning 103 9.2 Risk 
       analysis 103 9.2.1 Identification of failures 103 9.2.2 
       Cause analysis 104 9.2.3 Consequence analysis 104 9.3 Risk
       picture and comparison of alternatives 106 9.4 Management 
       review and judgement. Decision 107 10 Risk analysis 
       process for a cash depot 108 10.1 Planning 108 10.1.1 
       Problem definition 108 10.1.2 Selection of analysis method
       109 10.2 Risk analysis 110 10.2.1 Identification of 
       hazards and threats 110 10.2.2 Cause analysis 110 10.2.3 
       Consequence analysis 113 10.3 Risk picture 115 10.4 Risk-
       reducing measures 117 10.4.1 Relocation of the NOKAS 
       facility 118 10.4.2 Erection of a wall 118 10.5 Management
       review and judgement. Decision 119 10.6 Discussion 119 11 
       Risk analysis process for municipalities 121 11.1 Planning
       121 11.1.1 Problem definition 121 11.1.2 Selection of 
       analysis method 122 11.2 Risk assessment 122 11.2.1 Hazard
       and threat identification 122 11.2.2 Cause and consequence
       analysis. Risk picture 125 11.3 Risk treatment 126 12 Risk
       analysis process for the entire enterprise 128 12.1 
       Planning 128 12.1.1 Problem definition 128 12.1.2 
       Selection of analysis method 129 12.2 Risk analysis 129 
       12.2.1 Price risk 129 12.2.2 Operational risk 132 12.2.3 
       Health, environment and safety (HES) 134 12.2.4 Reputation
       risk 135 12.3 Overall risk picture 137 12.4 Risk treatment
       138 13 Discussion 139 13.1 Risk analysis as a decision 
       support tool 139 13.2 Risk is more than the calculated 
       probabilities and expected values 140 13.3 Risk analysis 
       has both strengths and weaknesses 141 13.3.1 Precision of 
       a risk analysis: uncertainty and sensitivity analysis 141 
       13.3.2 Terminology 143 13.3.3 Risk acceptance criteria 
       (tolerability limits) 145 13.4 Reflection on approaches, 
       methods and results 148 13.5 Limitations of the causal 
       chain approach 148 13.6 Risk perspectives 150 13.7 
       Scientific basis 153 13.8 The implications of the 
       limitations of risk assessment 155 13.9 Critical systems 
       and activities 157 13.10 On the difference between risk as
       seen from the perspectives of the analysts and management 
       162 13.11 Conclusions 165 A Probability calculus and 
       statistics 167 A.1 The meaning of a probability 167 A.2 
       Probability calculus 168 A.3 Probability distributions: 
       expected value 170 A.3.1 Binomial distribution 171 A.4 
       Statistics (Bayesian statistics) 172 B Introduction to 
       reliability analysis 174 B.1 Reliability of systems 
       composed of components 174 B.2 Production system 176 B.3 
       Safety system 176 C Approach for selecting risk analysis 
       methods 178 C.1 Expected consequences 178 C.2 Uncertainty 
       factors 179 C.3 Frame conditions 182 C.4 Selection of a 
       specific method 182 D Terminology 184 D.1 Risk management:
       Relationships between key terms 186 Bibliography 188 Index
       195 
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